Nairobi — Less than three years after a closely fought presidential election plunged Kenya into widespread violence and displaced thousands, the country is bracing itself for another crucial and equally divisive ballot, this time on a new constitution.

"There is sufficient justification for people to be afraid, mainly because of hate messages and leaflets asking some communities to leave certain areas," said Ozonnia Ojielo, senior peace and development adviser at the UN Development Programme in Kenya. "There are also political actors using innuendoes."

The referendum is due on 4 August, and campaigns in favour (represented by the colour green) and against (red) the new political dispensation are in full gear. Observers and the Uwiano Platform for Peace, a joint initiative of the government and civil society, believe the potential for violence exists.

Uwiano has set up a free SMS service (6397) to monitor the situation and has received more than 4,000 messages. Many of these reported violent incidents, hate speech and various activities that threaten the peace.

"Kenya has had a bad past where people stopped trusting each other because of violence whenever we have had an electoral process," said Stephen Kileme, programme administrator for Peacenet, a national umbrella organization of NGOs, CBOs, religious organizations and individuals active in peace-building and conflict resolution. "It is the history, people are afraid of the past."

Peacenet has identified 29 "hot spots", mainly in Rift Valley and Western provinces. "Reports from some of these areas indicate that some communities are being threatened," Kileme told IRIN on 28 July. "Some people are being told to 'leave in peace or leave in pieces'. We are not taking anything for granted and have alerted the relevant authorities."

Some people have already abandoned their homes. In Western Province, the police arrested six people on suspicion of distributing threatening leaflets. An extra 15,000 policemen are being sent to Rift Valley Province.

"The possible insecurity flashpoints have been profiled and adequate measures taken to prevent any possible breakdown in law and order," Police Commissioner Mathew Iteere told reporters in Nairobi on 26 July. "We shall be vigilant to protect the democratic rights of all persons to campaign for their opinions."

There is reason to worry, say observers. In June, explosives went off at a "No" rally in Nairobi while some MPs, including a cabinet minister, were arraigned in court for hate speech. On 20 July, a group of youths in Kitui attacked the "Red" team and six people were injured. Other incidents included a 21 July standoff in Narok District, the 25 July attempt to pelt a helicopter carrying a minister in Bungoma District and the 26 July theft of computers from the "Red" offices.